Not so long ago, we studied the threats that target Game of Thrones and other popular TV series fans who wanted to download new and not yet released episodes or watch them online. One of the websites encouraging users to download malware under the pretext of updating Flash Player. It is worth noting that from the technical point of view, Shlayer is nothing special. Its main executable file is a Bash script that consists of only four lines of code. All that it does is decrypt and run another file that it brings along with it, which in turn downloads, decrypts, and executes another file, which does exactly the same.
In the end, this nesting doll of various malware installs several AdWare programs, hides them well and registers them to run at startup. The main executable file of the Shlayer Trojan is just the outer layer of a nesting doll. Two other malware families that we encountered during the first half of the year are Trojan. Spynion and Trojan-Downloader. Both are far from being as popular as Shlayer, as they have been encountered by less than one percent of our users. However, each of them utilizes its own method of deceiving a potential victim, and both deserve attention.
The Trojan. The trojan also has backdoor functionality, i. Vidsler is distributed via banner ad links, only this time under the pretext of requiring the user to update video codecs or download a new version of a video player. In terms of functionality, Vidsler is similar to Shlayer: it downloads, installs, and runs other software, most often from the FkCodec AdWare family. Lastly, we should point out several rather dangerous trojans, which, fortunately, are not encountered very frequently in the wild. For example, the Trojan-Ransom. This malware is known to have been distributed through the official website of the Transmission torrent client.
Another example is the Trojan-Spy. However, the biggest argument against the idea that macOS and iOS as well is invulnerable to attack is the fact that there already have been attacks against individual users of these operating systems and groups of such users. Over the past few years, we have seen at least eight campaigns whose organizers acted on the presumption that the users of MacBook, iPhone, and other devices do not expect to encounter malware created specifically for Apple platforms. Due to that we do not have statistics about threats for this operating system.
However, along with malware for Android, Kaspersky researchers have also encountered malicious implants for iOS. Next, we will provide an overview of what we consider to be the most interesting targeted attacks against the macOS and iOS platforms that we have been investigating over and Soon after the discovery of the Skygofree Android implant , Kaspersky experts found and analyzed an implant for iOS that had been developed by the same group of cybercriminals. It was discovered as a result of the analysis of the Skygofree infrastructure and consisted of several configuration files MobileConfig for iOS, which were used to register the device on an MDM server.
Kaspersky experts closely follow the activity of Sofacy, one of the most professional of cyber espionage groups. One of the tools at the disposal of this group is XAgent, which is a set of malware sharing a common code base, each sample individually modified to infect a specific OS, including macOS and iOS. However, the most recent detected versions of this malware for iOS date back to the end of and the beginning of This may mean that cybercriminals have at least temporarily lost interest in iPhones and iPads.
As a consequence, several servers have been discovered that presumably belong to the Bahamut group and have been active since While investigating an attack on a cryptocurrency exchange service conducted by the Lazarus group, we discovered that the attackers sent out messages to potential victims with a link to a malicious macOS cryptocurrency trading app.
In , we also discovered that Manuscrypt, a piece of malware used exclusively by the Lazarus group, was engaged in suspicious activity. The new samples of this malware were noticeably different from those exposed during previous campaigns, so we gave them a new name: ThreatNeedle. Shortly after Dark Matter published its findings about the Windshift group in August , we conducted our own investigation on the activities of this group.
In particular, we were interested in a piece of macOS malware called Windtail. Six months after the AppleJeus operation, we discovered new Lazarus activity campaign that manifested similar symptoms: again, companies from the financial sector were hit, and again previously unknown malware for macOS was used during the attack. At the end of , we discovered a new version of the FinSpy iOS implant in the wild, which was apparently developed during the summer of that year.
This implant was part of the FinSpy Mobile product that was provided by the well-known tracking software developer. MacOS malware has come a long way from isolated instances that existed in to hundreds of thousands of types that now exist in However, the era of explosive growth seems to be behind us, and we cannot but notice the decline in the activity of cybercriminals on this platform.
However, the owners of MacBooks and iMacs have never been considered priority targets compared to Windows users, as the latter have always been much more profitable to attack simply because they were far more numerous. In addition, there is a large number of both known and not very well known exploits for Windows, which, when combined with the fact that Windows users tend to install updates irregularly, make it easier and more convenient for cybercriminals to infect Windows systems. Another important aspect that we have discovered while preparing this report is that instead of full-fledged malware, MacBook and iMac owners increasingly receive annoying, but in most cases relatively harmless ads.
It seems that this way of monetizing an infection allows attackers to make a profit and save on expenses. By contrast, it would be much more complicated and expensive to create full-fledged malware for macOS. The reasons for this are both the fact that there are fewer potential victims and the efforts that Apple is making to protect its customers.
Phishing and social engineering, which are now also on the rise, are another example of cheaper threats. Apple IDs are relatively easy to monetize. For example, they can be sold to other criminals. Perhaps the theft of this type of data is now the most dangerous threat macOS users face, in terms of the balance between the probability of the attack and the damage in the event of its success.
Moreover, our statistics show that this type of attack is likely to be on the rise in the near future. An extremely dangerous but also an extremely rare threat is a targeted attack on macOS and iOS users, mainly business users. Several well-known cybercriminal groups are currently working to develop malware for these operating systems, but the likelihood that a random user will be the target of such programs is extremely small.
However, if you work in a financial institution, such as, for example, a bank, and your MacBook or iPhone is a corporate device, then the chances that you will be targeted increase considerably. In this case the threat is significant enough, so we do not recommend relying on the fact that Apple devices are in general less popular targets, and we recommend seeking out a reliable security solution.
More so as we expect the number of targeted attacks on macOS and iOS devices to increase between and Kaspersky products scan the content of web pages children try to access. If the website belongs to one of the fourteen unwelcome categories, the Kaspersky Security Network is alerted no private user data is sent, so privacy is not compromised.
Mark these two important points:. But anonymous statistics are collected for all the 14 categories. Data is harvested only from computers running Windows and macOS; no mobile statistics are provided in this report. In the products featuring Parental Control functions web filtering is currently performed across the following categories:.
We have grouped search queries by language. The English statistics we consider to be international, because English is such a wide spread language. The percentage of queries says how popular a subject is. We have split the search queries we collected from June through August into several subject categories:. Much of their time was dedicated to online store browsing. News websites drew less attention than last summer, losing 4.
The share of porn websites somewhat decreased by 1. This does not mean that children have stopped to play games — quite the opposite. As explained in our annual report, children have quickly developed passion for mobile games and migrated to mobile platforms almost completely. Parental Control module and Safe Kids product notifications across 14 categories, June — August download. If you look at how popular different search query subjects are, you will see that most of the time children would be looking for movies and TV series User search queries by subject category, June — August download.
We have observed more than once that children take interest in video and audio content and, more than anything else, like to visit YouTube and other streaming platforms to view gaming streams or listen to music. YouTube is one of top choices for children. They use it to watch game walkthroughs, musical clips, lifestyle video blogs and lots of other things. YouTube accounts for most video-related queries. This summer, other than the famous blogger PewDiePie, many kids were looking for the English-speaking beauty blogger James Charles 16,, subscribers at the time of writing.
Coming up third is the professional Battle Royale popular game genre among children player and streamer Ninja. They would be looking not just for the series itself, but also for info about the actors, who are of the same age as many of our young users. Interestingly, with the series so popular, children have begun to dig more into radiation and all things related. Billie Eilish, whom we have already covered in our annual report, is second in terms of search query frequency. The track has seen lots of remixes, has ,, views on YouTube, and is used in over 2 million videos uploaded to TikTok.
This 2nd of August, a press release came out claiming that the number of Roblox players active users has exceeded million, surpassing the number of Minecraft players 91 million. Interestingly, according to statistics there are more queries about Minecraft. Moreover, Fortnite turned out more popular than Roblox according to the same criterion, too. But this should not lead to conclusions about the time children spend on a particular game.
Search activity may be related to attempts to clarify some gameplay processes or simply find walkthroughs. According to search queries, kids get more time for online stores in the summer. As before, amazon, ebay and aliexpress were the most popular queries. Speaking of electronics, the top searches were Apple and Samsung.
The network has remained popular during the summer, even overtaking SnapChat in terms of the number of subject-related search queries. And yet Facebook is still the most popular search query for online communications. If we are to compare our annual and summer statistics, it is clear that children become less interested in pornographic content during summer vacation: Regarding visits to porn websites from the PC, the annual figure is 2.
Search queries suffered basically no change over these periods. Other that the global interests, we have identified a few more noteworthy subjects to be covered in this article. Speaking of the meme world, children did not fail to heed the goings on around the American Storm Area 51 event — subject of active discussions online this summer. There were also many queries concerning Grumpy Cat, who died this May, thus sparking much interest. This summer, we also noticed children paying somewhat more attention to online privacy and anonymity.
Children are well informed about what is going on in the world. Moreover, many things are happening exactly thanks to children. Thus, the million Roblox users are mostly kids. We recommend using this tool as your assistant in building a relationship of trust with your child, not yet another internet filter. It exclusively targets victims in Brazil: however, theoretically it could also be used to attack any other Android user if the cybercriminals behind it want to. It has been widespread since January , primarily hosted in the Google Play store, but also found in alternative unofficial Android app stores.
For the malware to function correctly, it requires at least Android Lollipop 5. For example, they use push notifications on compromised websites; and also spread it using messages delivered via WhatsApp or SMS, and sponsored links in Google searches. The first samples we found in the wild date to January and February , while so far over 20 different variants have appeared in the Google Play Store, the majority of these pose as an update to the popular instant messaging application WhatsApp.
It is worth mentioning that the infamous fake WhatsApp update registered over 10, downloads in the official Google Play Store, reaching up to victims per day. In general, we always recommend carefully review permissions any app is requesting on the device. It is also essential to install an excellent up-to-date anti-malware solution with real-time protection enabled. Download full report PDF. We have thoroughly analyzed all the service requests, customer conversations and incident response deliverables to provide you an overview in numbers. We also provide some high-level recommendations to improve resilience against such attacks.
The data used in this report comes from the wide range of incident investigation services provided by Kaspersky teams. More than half of the requests for investigation were initiated by customers after detecting an attack that had visible consequences, such as unauthorized money transfers, workstations encrypted by ransomware, service unavailability, etc.
In the other cases, suspicious activity was caused by unusual user actions or software behavior related to security misconfigurations. The most common reason for customer requests was a ransomware attack. This category of attack is characterized by rapid development, difficulty of early detection, and contrastingly obvious consequences.
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Experts from Kaspersky Anti-Malware Research Department ranked the most common types of ransomware which targeted organizations in Kaspersky customers often request detailed analysis of the data collected by automated monitoring tools. As a result of analyzing this data, the following conclusions were reached:. The remote management interface of the RDP service was used in the initial attack vector in one out of three incidents. Such an attack usually lasted just a few hours because weak or dictionary passwords were used.
In addition, in most cases the same credentials were used for authentication in different systems, so an attacker was able to reuse the usernames and passwords to access additional hosts. In one third of attacks through remote management interfaces, the valid credentials were known to the intruder in advance no brute-force attempts were detected.
They were probably obtained using social engineering methods or were found on unsecured resources with public access for example, if an employee used the same password to register on third party resources. An employee downloaded a malicious file from untrusted sources and launched it, allowing an adversary to gain control over the workstation.
While it is impossible to completely eliminate human error, regular staff training on information security awareness can significantly reduce the success of attacks using social engineering methods. For a number of incidents, Kaspersky specialists have established the time period between the beginning of the attacker activity and the end of the attack.
After analysis, all incidents were divided into three categories of attack duration. For those capable of ingesting this kind of information, make sure to highlight mentioned techniques in your security tools of choice. From the statistics in this report, we can conclude that cyberattacks target all types of businesses around the globe. Maintaining and improving an already existing incident response plan will accelerate handling of security breaches through proper containment, analysis and eradication of infected elements in the network. The risk of re-infection is reduced and defense against complex attacks is improved by utilizing the lessons learned from each incident to enhance the existing security process in the environment.
Along with a powerful auditing policy and a log retention period of at least six months to one year, developing guided procedures for proper handling of digital evidence will definitely help in faster and more complete analysis of incidents by experts. This results in quicker containment and reduces possible loss of assets, data or reputation. Frequent security assessments have proved effective in discovering weaknesses early enough to fix them and hardening overall infrastructure before adversaries reveal those weaknesses and make use of them in an offensive attack.
Furthermore, we can see that humans are still the weakest link in the security chain. Even with a high-level security policy and security controls in place, a single employee uneducated in information security can trigger a major compromise of the internal environment and assets. Hledat na tomto webu:.
Technical details The dropper has its encrypted payload embedded as an overlay of a PE file as extra data that will never be used in normal execution steps. The decrypted overlay data contains the following artifacts: an extra executable; process hollowing shellcode; a list of predefined executable names, which the malware uses as a future process name.
Below is an incomplete functionality list for the various Dtrack payload executables found: keylogging, retrieving browser history, gathering host IP addresses, information about available networks and active connections, listing all running processes, listing all files on all available disk volumes. This means that the target organizations may have a number of security issues, such as: weak network security policies, weak password policies, lack of traffic monitoring. We therefore advise the companies to: tighten their network and password policies, use traffic monitoring software, such as Kaspersky Anti Targeted Attack Platform KATA , use antivirus solutions.
IoCs 8fe7eeffc2ee56 3a3badaafd1f76f3c29f24 F84de0aae7e02fb0ffef96db8d. Brief summary: We present the results of evaluating the positive economic and environmental impact of blocking web miners with Kaspersky products.
How much does power consumption increase when the system is mining cryptocurrency? Is there a dependence on the amount and type of memory? Definitely not. This is clear from this image showing the increase in CPU load when mining begins: As can be seen, the amount of used memory used does not change and does not depend on the amount of processor load. Is there a dependence on Internet connection speed?
We did not check this; in all experiments the connection speed was more or less the same. Is there a dependence on the browser? Is there a dependence on the type of operating system? Probably not. Question 2. But processors that are part of devices that block web miners have different TDPs. How to evaluate the contribution of each of them?
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How to calculate the average working time of a web miner? Conclusion The ongoing fight against web mining has been quite successful, in both legal and technological aspects. Notes We have been able to experimentally measure the dependence of increase in power consumption on nominal TPD for 21 types of processors, which amounts to 0. Given that, and also assuming that the list of CPU types evolves with time, we plan to study this matter in more detail going forward.
This assumption may be incorrect, but there is no technical way of checking it, because Kaspersky Security Network operates only with depersonalized statistics and thus we cannot match data on processor types with data on detections. Introduction The belief that there are no threats for the macOS operating system or at least no serious threats has been bandied about for decades.
Figures and trends Phishing During the first half of , we detected nearly 6 million phishing attacks on macOS users. Of these, The countries with the largest share of unique macOS users who experienced phishing attacks were Brazil In , the number of such attacks approached 1. As of June, the number of phishing attacks in has already exceeded 1. Malicious and potentially unwanted software From to , the number of macOS users who have experienced attacks from malicious and potentially unwanted programs grew, approaching , attacked users per year.
However, starting in , the number of attacked users began to decrease, and in the first half of it only amounted to 87, The number of attacks on macOS users through malicious and potentially unwanted programs has been increasing annually since , and in it exceeded 4 million attacks. During the first half of , we registered 1.
The vast majority of threats for macOS in were in the AdWare category. As for the malware threats, the Shlayer family, which masquerades as Adobe Flash Player or an update for it, has been the most prevalent. More than a quarter of Mac users who are protected by Kaspersky solutions and have experience malicious and potentially unwanted software attacks live in the USA. Phishing for Mac users We started collecting detailed statistics on phishing threats that target macOS users in Growth in the number of phishing attacks on macOS users, — The share of corporate macOS users who faced phishing attacks during the first half of came up to The phishing page subject matters In order to understand what services phishing pages impersonate, we analyzed the most common phishing tricks and the geography of attacked users.
H1 H1 Banks Examples of phishing pages that are designed to steal AppleIDs Links to these sites are usually sent in emails that allegedly come from Apple Support. Examples of phishing emails that have been sent to steal an AppleID Another phishing trick is thank you messages for purchasing an Apple device or app on the App Store. Fake malware attacks Another variation on phishing web pages is malware infection detection notification pages.
Example phishing page that provides a notification of a nonexistent infection Malicious and unwanted programs for macOS At the time of writing, our database contained , unique malicious and potentially unwanted files for macOS. The number of malicious and potentially unwanted files for macOS, — As you can see from the diagram, up to the number of malicious files targeting macOS that were detected each year was insignificant. Number of unique macOS users attacked by malware, to June In order to roughly estimate how often macOS users are attacked by both malicious and unwanted software, we can look at the diagram that illustrates the number of times that Kaspersky products have detected either of the threats.
Number of times that Kaspersky products detected malware and potentially unwanted software for macOS, to June This diagram clearly shows an increase in the number of attacks that occurred in Geography of attacks In order to get an idea of the geographical distribution of threats for macOS and to determine if there are regions where users are more likely to be attacked by malicious software nowadays, we compiled a rating of countries by the share of unique users attacked in the first half of , and, for the sake of comparison, in the first half of Example of malware installed or advertised to users by some types of AdWare Let us proceed from a general description to specific examples.
Cimpli family samples prefer to stay inactive We assume that this feature was added to Cimpli in order to protect it from being listed in the databases of security software developers and, as a result, from being blocked. Link to a site with Shlayer on the first search results page Note that this technique of pushing a link to a malicious page up in the search results for certain queries is also used by distributors of other malware. One of the websites encouraging users to download malware under the pretext of updating Flash Player It is worth noting that from the technical point of view, Shlayer is nothing special.
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The main executable file of the Shlayer Trojan is just the outer layer of a nesting doll Two other malware families that we encountered during the first half of the year are Trojan. The Skygofree implant for iOS January Soon after the discovery of the Skygofree Android implant , Kaspersky experts found and analyzed an implant for iOS that had been developed by the same group of cybercriminals.
Sofacy XAgent March Kaspersky experts closely follow the activity of Sofacy, one of the most professional of cyber espionage groups. Operation AppleJeus August While investigating an attack on a cryptocurrency exchange service conducted by the Lazarus group, we discovered that the attackers sent out messages to potential victims with a link to a malicious macOS cryptocurrency trading app.
ThreatNeedle and Manuscrypt October In , we also discovered that Manuscrypt, a piece of malware used exclusively by the Lazarus group, was engaged in suspicious activity. Windtail December Shortly after Dark Matter published its findings about the Windshift group in August , we conducted our own investigation on the activities of this group.
New macOS malware from Lazarus January Six months after the AppleJeus operation, we discovered new Lazarus activity campaign that manifested similar symptoms: again, companies from the financial sector were hit, and again previously unknown malware for macOS was used during the attack.
New iOS implant version from FinSpy mid At the end of , we discovered a new version of the FinSpy iOS implant in the wild, which was apparently developed during the summer of that year.
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Conclusion MacOS malware has come a long way from isolated instances that existed in to hundreds of thousands of types that now exist in To keep your devices on MacOS safe, Kaspersky recommends Try to keep macOS and all of your apps up to date Use only legitimate software, downloaded from official webpages or installed from Mac App Store Start using a reliable security solution like Kaspersky Internet Security that delivers advanced protection on Mac, as well as on PC and mobile devices Download and install apps only from the official resources such as Appstore.
If you need to access your iCloud, for instance to find your phone when it is lost, use only official website. To reduce the risk for corporate MacOS users, Kaspersky recommends companies to take the following measures Implement security awareness training for staff explaining how to recognize and avoid potentially malicious applications or files. For example, employees should not download and launch any apps or programs from untrusted or unknown sources.
The product empowered with cloud-based threat intelligence and machine learning technics to detect existed and new threats for different operating systems. Provide your SOC team with access to the latest Threat Intelligence , which cover threats for MacOS, to keep up to date with the new and emerging tools, techniques and tactics used by threat actors.
Statistics collection principles Kaspersky products scan the content of web pages children try to access. YouTube vs movies vs animations YouTube is one of top choices for children. Computer games This 2nd of August, a press release came out claiming that the number of Roblox players active users has exceeded million, surpassing the number of Minecraft players 91 million.
Porn and erotic If we are to compare our annual and summer statistics, it is clear that children become less interested in pornographic content during summer vacation: Anime, memes, VPN and much more Other that the global interests, we have identified a few more noteworthy subjects to be covered in this article. Summary Children are well informed about what is going on in the world. Device Information Retrieves Android system information, logged user and their registered Google accounts, but missing permissions to properly execute the malware, and hardware information.
Send Text Send a string of text to input data in textboxes. Incident Response report 29 Srpen, - Reasons for requesting incident response More than half of the requests for investigation were initiated by customers after detecting an attack that had visible consequences, such as unauthorized money transfers, workstations encrypted by ransomware, service unavailability, etc.
If a ransomware attack is detected, it is recommended to: Isolate the host and the network segment where the incident took place to avoid further attack development. Take snapshots of RAM and images of the hard drives for further detailed investigation. Futures scenarios can be developed by using multiple future variables [ 46 ], or by using the Critical Futures Driver. There is a variety of methods deployed to develop the futures scenarios, and there are pros and cons in these methods.
Also, there are some limitations associated with the establishment of future strategies if future drivers are determined based on futures scenarios. Specifically, futures scenarios based on the three key drivers of the energy transition, such as energy system E , energy citizenship S , and digital technology T will be anticipated in this study. The fuzzy-set analysis methodology is a special form of the case study methodology known as qualitative comparative analysis QCA suggested by Zadeh from the University of California Berkeley in [ 51 ], and it has been applied in diverse ways by scholars such as Ragin and Kvist in social sciences [ 52 , 53 ].
The fuzzy-set analysis is the improved version of the methodology from qualitative comparative analysis [ 54 , 55 ] that has been previously used in social sciences. In particular, the fuzzy-set analysis has the following four major advantages. First, through exercising the fuzzy-set methodology, disadvantages of case-oriented and variable-oriented studies can be eliminated. Second, the fuzzy-set analysis allows to include the middle-case studies 15—25 cases , since both comparative case analysis and regression analysis could not address as being substantial subjects to analysis; however, it makes middle-class comparative analysis possible [ 52 , 56 ].
Moreover, it is also used to analyze joint causal relations by considering the interactive effects between each quality in a given case [ 53 ]. Third, it can explain diverse social phenomena. The fuzzy-set analysis overcomes the dichotomy method of 0 and 1 that have been used in many social science studies by enabling representation of various degrees between the 0 and 1, which minimizes the loss of information in analysis [ 57 ]. Fourth, it enables a more theoretical approach to categorization of types.
The fuzzy-set analysis determines the number of memberships by categorizing the standards, and these standards consist of the ideal type formulated based on the theoretical background [ 58 ]. Accordingly, many recent studies are applying the fuzzy-set analysis to categorize individual ideal types [ 59 , 60 ].
This research categorizes all thirty-five OECD countries through comparative analysis by utilizing the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. The fuzzy-set ideal type analysis is determined by fuzzy membership scores based on the fuzzy-set theory to demonstrate how close the subject of analysis is and is converted into fuzzy sets [ 61 , 62 ]. Through this process, it analyzes the degree of memberships for each category, converting the results of the existing original data into fuzzy-set membership scores. As the number of the sets is decided by the ideal type based on the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis unlike the existing cluster analysis, this research delivers a more systematic categorization and interpretation results [ 59 , 60 ].
The criteria for interpretation of membership scores of the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis drawn from this research is based on the theory suggested by Ragin [ 55 ]. In particular, as this research converted the scores into fuzzy-set score system through the calibrate function of STATA In other words, any score that is higher than the crossover point 0.
The formula for calculating the Degree of Membership Score in the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis is as follows:. The socio-technical system transition theory that this study underlines described in Section 2. The energy transition corresponds to the long-term macro trend landscape , and social, technical, and institutional conditions and norms that drive the energy transition belong to the meso-level.
As described in Table 1 below, this study attempts to create the measurement framework to take a look at the meso-level of the energy transition by selecting the five detailed variables of the three variable categories E: energy system, S: energy citizenship, T: digital technology, the constitutions of meso-level.
Both of the detailed variables are included in light of the context of the energy citizenship and the community energy, explained in Section 2. Two of the detailed variables are in line with the context of the digital transition and blockchain technology in energy transition, described in Section 2. In order to conduct the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis, this study first weighted and standardized the five detailed variables and placed them in each of the three categories of energy transition. Second, it converted calibrated the three category variables into fuzzy scores by utilizing the three anchors minimum, median p50 , and maximum respectively, to identify the types of energy transition in all thirty-five OECD countries.
Accordingly, the ideal type was determined by applying the number of cases that each category variable can take, and this research postulated the eight ideal type sets high or low based on the three category variables see Table 2. In other words, among the fuzzy scores of the three variables E, S, T that consist the corresponding category sets, the minimum value will be selected. It places each fuzzy-set ideal type in the four futures scenarios in which the relevant features of three key drivers E: energy system, S: energy citizenship, and T: digital technology are reflected.
Diagram of four futures scenarios based on the eight ideal types of energy transition. Table 3 below shows the results of the fuzzy membership scores fuzzy score of the OECD countries for the sets of three variables E, S, T in this study—the fuzzy scores for each of the types in bold and shaded.
Also, the four countries including Ireland 0. Then, the one country, Slovak Rep. Also, only one country, Korea 0. These results of the three countries, the blue color triangles, are shown to be significantly large different from the OECD national average results, the grey color triangles. In relation to the energy system e , there were very low fuzzy scores such as 0.
The results of three countries, the red color triangles, appear to be much narrower than the grey color triangles, which are the OECD national average results. In short, the eight ideal types of energy transition for thirty-five OECD countries were deployed. The ten countries including Hungary fuzzy score 0.
Based on the measurement framework explained in Section 3. The eight countries in this scenario will go through a transition pathway, in which they transform from fossil-fuel based societies and economies. Small-scale microgrids and global large-scale power trading will take place in an energy blockchain ecosystem. For example, microgrid systems such as the Brooklyn Microgrid Project in the United States, where local residents install solar panels and sell surplus power; and also the real-time electricity production and transaction data are stored in blocks through the smart meter, and automatic electricity trading is performed globally through the smart contracts.
As a result, citizens in these scenarios lead a society that demonstrates energy citizenship and breaks out of the fossil fuel-based economy. The twelve countries in this scenario address energy issues with the application of digital technology in an integrated manner. Transition experiments of a reforming socio-economic system are progressing, forming a transition pathway, and deepening.
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A transition to renewable energy, including solar energy, is rapidly taking place, and there is an achievement of grid parity i. Issues such as the stability, scalability, and operational cost efficiency of blockchains are resolved; the energy blockchain ecosystem stably develops; and as a result, legal tender and cryptocurrency with a value are made.
A private blockchain, closed blockchain deepens and broadens to become a public blockchain. Decentralized power trading on the microgrid becomes routine, and CO 2 emissions trading also starts to use energy blockchains, which becomes commonplace. As the smart grids of regional units of the countries concerned are linked to the Global Energy Interconnection, energy prosumers become active players at the center of these societies.
In the five countries in this scenario, the transition to renewable energy, such as solar energy, steadily deepens. The number of countries achieving grid parity increases but at a very moderate pace. The energy blockchain is gradually employed in the microgrid. A smart agreement of the blockchain are made and deepened, but an energy blockchain ecosystem remains at the level of a closed private blockchain. Though various examples of community energy grow, energy citizenship is still unable to be implemented or become mainstream. The per capita energy consumption of the citizens of such countries does not decrease significantly, and there are no major changes in the energy supply-oriented system.
This is the futures scenario marked by the failure of energy transition or regression. The ten countries in this scenario can technologically achieve grid in years, but under a centralized one-way energy system, there is still not enough increase in the share of renewable energy.
The transaction costs for the energy blockchain ecosystem will remain too high compared to the power trading gains in the microgrid. While there are attempts to make alternatives to this system, stakeholders that include existing power generators harshly oppose them, and ordinary citizens do not show much interest and effort.
Thus, a static energy supply-oriented social system is maintained. However, the anticipation of futures scenarios in this study suggests a rough context, and does not provide a detailed description of transition paths and experiments for each OECD country. In order to overcome these limitations, it is necessary to conduct in-depth analysis of more complex current and futures factors that lead to energy transition through further studies. Last but not least, the other co-author, I. National Center for Biotechnology Information , U.
Published online Apr Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer. Received Mar 18; Accepted Apr Abstract This study aims to identify the ideal types of energy transition of the thirty-five Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD countries and to explore their implications using the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. Keywords: energy transition, futures scenarios, OECD countries, fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. Introduction In recent years, various efforts have been made to expand policies aimed at transitioning to sustainable systems, since there is a perception that the current socio-technical system is unsustainable as it uses enormous amounts of energy and emits carbon dioxide in the atmosphere [ 1 , 2 , 3 ].
Theoretical Background and Issues 2. The Theories of Futures Scenarios and Energy Transition Futures uncertainty towards energy transition may be the space of possibilities [ 42 , 43 ]. Methodology and Measurement Framework 3. Application of Fuzzy-Set Ideal Type Analysis Method The fuzzy-set analysis methodology is a special form of the case study methodology known as qualitative comparative analysis QCA suggested by Zadeh from the University of California Berkeley in [ 51 ], and it has been applied in diverse ways by scholars such as Ragin and Kvist in social sciences [ 52 , 53 ].
Measurement Frameworks The socio-technical system transition theory that this study underlines described in Section 2. Table 1 The variable framework of the fuzzy-set ideal type analysis. Open in a separate window. Table 2 The eight ideal type sets. Figure 1. Figure 2.
Figure 3. Figure 4. Futures scenarios results of energy transition in OECD countries. Author Contributions T. Conflicts of Interest The authors declare no conflict of interest. References 1. Christensen C. Disruptive Innovation for Social Change. Elzen B. Edward Elgar; Cheltenham, UK: Foxon T. Geels F. Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways.
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